Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Sector Analysis of Plastic Products related Companies

Sector Analysis of Plastic Products related Companies

Sector Analysis of Plastic Products related Companies
Indian Plastic made a promising beginning in 1957 & today employs about 40 lakh people with around 30000 processing units the majority of which are small & medium enterprises.  The plastics industry is a growing industry in India. It has expanded at ~8% CAGR over the last five years. 

Supreme Industries ltd : CMP 1086: 

Best among Plastic industry. For the last 18 years this company is able to grow its revenue from 500 cr to 5000 cr ie. 10X and Profit from 3 cr to 500 cr i.e. again more than 10X hence investment in this company of 1 lakh is worth 2Cr. Ie. 200X. Stocks have moved from Undervaluation to High valuation. Where there is growth there is wealth. Many people in this group have been holding this company since 150, 6 years back. Still no need to hurry and can hold it for long term wealth. Current year revenue has also fallen by 2% and Net profit has grown by 4% respectively. Buying can be done only during fall near 730 and we can hold this multi-bagger stock for the long term.

Astral Poly Technik Ltd  CMP 866:

Good among Plastic industry with the base at Ahmedabad. Just listed 12 Years back near 8. During that time their revenue and profits were 100 cr and 10 cr. Today they are able to generate around sales and profits of around 2600 cr and 250 cr. Today’s profit is almost twice that of just 10 years back sales. High Growth sustained with low debt. Hence investment of 1 Lakh already 1 cr with the whole investment refunded in dividends. Many people in this group bought around 350 just 4 Years back and still there is no need to sell. Current Year revenue and profit have grown by 3% & 27% respectively shows muted demand affected by the global slowdown. New buying again could be done near 800 during any fall and can hold it for long term wealth creation. The company has acquired a 51% stake in “REX”, engaged In the business of Manufacturing & supply of corrugated and other plastic piping solutions against consideration of Rs. 75 cr paid in cash. 20% holding is with Different FPI and 6% with Mutual fund companies. 

Nilkamal Ltd CMP: 1070

Nilkamal Limited is in the manufacturing business of molded furniture and material handling products with diversified product profiles. They are also having a presence in the retail business of lifestyle furniture, furnishings, and accessories under its brand '& home' & Nilkamal Mattresses. Able to grow their revenue from 200 cr to 2000 cr and Profits from 10 cr to 120 cr during the last 15 years. Hence investment of  1 lakh is already 30 Lakh during the last 18 years. Many people in this group Bought Nilkamal just at 370, 4 years back, and still, there is no need to worry. New buying again can be done near 1400 and can hold it for long term wealth creation. 

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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AGR Dues (impacting telecom companies) what we know and it’s impact?

AGR Dues (impacting telecom companies) what we know and it’s impact? 

AGR Dues (impacting telecom companies) what we know and it’s impact?
History- Supreme Court had levied a hefty penalty on telcos mainly Bharti and Vodafone around (50-60,000 crore each) against unpaid AGR dues on account of change in calculation methodology.
While Bharti could pay chunk of its dues led by capital raising, Vodafone has not been able to pay much of the AGR dues, which has raised uncertainty regarding Vodafone Idea survival. 

DOT (department of telecom) has proposed to let the telcos pay the AGR dues via instalments over the next 20 years, which will ensure their survival, however this has to be approved by the Supreme Court.

How will stocks be impacted?
Vodafone Idea- Most amount of volatility will be witnessed on this counter as in all probability it’s fate hangs in the balance on this court ruling. A positive ruling by the SC can really change its fortune and cause a substantial uptick in its stock price, while a negative ruling can be equally detrimental to its fortunes. A positive ruling can even lead to doubling of the stock price/while a negative ruling can result in 40-50% decline  (given the very low market capitalisation relative to the size of the company and the AGR dues  penalty)

Bharti Airtel - Bharti has already paid around 30k crore in AGR dues, hence any positive news will be positive from a balance sheet perspective, as some refund or other sort of waiver it may get. However at the moment markets are anticipating a duopoly in the telecom space, and are expecting market share gains for Bharti led by the death of Vodafone hence some amount of market share gain optimism may temper down.  
A negative verdict won’t be too negative for Bharti as the optimism around market share gains will get stronger, infact on a negative verdict Bharti may rally more.

Reliance Jio- Given they begun operations only on 2016/2017, AGR dues are not applicable for reliance. A positive verdict may be slightly negative as it would lead to survival of Vodafone and would not lead to significant market share gains. A negative verdict will lead to lot of optimism around market share gains and can help Reliance gain in the trading  session.

Banks- Indusind bank and IDFC first bank will also be buzzing in trade. IndusInd bank has around 4K crore exposure to Vodafone (2% of loan book) and IDFC first bank has 3k crore (3% of loan book) exposure to Vodafone, a positive verdict can result in a relief rally in both the stocks, given the concerns markets has regarding this exposure.

The country’s apex court - Supreme Court (SC) observes following:

  1. “Give us details of timeframe on payment of AGR dues.”
  2. “What is guarantee that telcos will pay as per timeframe ?”
  3. “Telcos must provide some security to satisfy the court.”
  4. “What is the security that telcos are ready to furnish ?”
  5. “Are telcos willing to furnish personal guarantees by directors ?”
  6. “Who authorizes demands to be raised against PSUs ?”
  7. “Our judgement was silent on PSUs.”
  8. “Demand against PSUs must be withdrawn.”
Supreme Court Order 
Several.issues which are to be considered such as reasonable time for staggered payout.  Also need to consider some security to ensure that telcos pay the AGR dues. Telcos are directed to file reply on roadmap of payment, time to be allowed.

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Vinati Organics Q4 FY20 Result

Vinati Organics Q4 FY20 Result

Vinati Organics Q4 FY20 Result
CMP: 997
Total income from operations 245.3 Cr 
301.9 Cr (-18.62%)  YoY | 238.4 Cr (2.92%) QoQ 
Year ending revenue: 1,029 Cr Vs. 1,128 Cr (-8.71%)

Net Profit of 74.6 Cr 
82.5 Cr (-9.77%) YoY 66.8 Cr (12.13%) QoQ 
Year ending Net profit: 334 Cr Vs. 282 Cr (18.41%)

EPS (in Rs.) 7.26
8.03 YoY | 6.50 QoQ 
Year ending EPS: 32.48 Vs. 27.48

View: Average result and  below expectation. YoY revenue and profit both have declined however QoQ revenue slightly increased and profit also increased. 

Business Updates & Highlights

Q4FY20 EBITDA is around INR 101.8 Cr Vs. 125.1 Cr in Q4FY19 Vs. 82.9 Cr therefore declined by 19.7% in YoY and up by 21.8% in YoY. EBITDA margin is 41.2% Vs. 41.4% in Q4FY19 Vs. 34.7% in Q3FY20. 

FY20 EBITDA to Rs. 413.8 Vs. 423.2 Cr in FY19 therefore declined by 2.2% in YoY. EBITDA margin of 40.2% Vs. 37.5% in FY19.  

Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on June 13, 2020, inter alia, has recommended an equity dividend of Re.0.50 per share of face value of Re. 1/- each (50%) for the financial year ended March 31, 2020

Financial

ROE and ROCE is around 31% and 45% respectively and book value per share is around INR 117 and share is currently trading at 8.8x of its book value. Company is currently trading at annualized PE of around 32 which is slightly high as per Industry benchmark. Promoter holding is around 74.05% in the company which is very strong and stable. FIIs and mutual fund hold around 5.1% and 5.4% in the company which is slightly increased in QoQ. Cash and cash equivalent from operating activities as of March 2020 is around INR 416 Cr Vs. 201 Cr as of March 2019. The good thing is company is virtually debt free. 

Position: Share strong support price is INR 920. Long term investor may continue with the company.  

Share View: Share price high 1,255 (52 week) and now 1,028. Vinati Organics Limited (VOL) is a specialty chemical company, focusing on manufacturing specialty chemicals and organic intermediaries. 

Opportunities:  World leaders in two of main products, Isobutyl Benzene (IBB) and 2-Acrylamido 2 Methylpropane Sulfonic Acid (ATBS). IBB is presently being used and appreciated by all manufactures of Ibuprofen in the world including the founder manufacturer of Ibuprofen i.e. M/s. Knoll Pharmaceuticals of UK and BASF Corporation of USA.

Risk: Continuously declined in topline and bottom line in YoY and QoQ. Export mainly dependent on China and was higher tariff. 

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Dixon Technology (India) Ltd - Q4 FY20 Results

Dixon Technology (India) Ltd - Q4 FY20 Results

Dixon Technology (India) Ltd - Q4 FY20 Results

CMP: 5,410
  
Total income from operations 857 Cr  
859 Cr (-0.02%)  YoY | 994 Cr (-13.72%) QoQ  
  
Year ending revenue: 4,400 Cr Vs. 2,984 Cr (47.41%) 
Net Profit of 27.5 Cr  
16.5 Cr (66.67%) YoY 26.3 Cr (4.53%) QoQ  
  
Year ending Net profit: 120.5 Cr Vs. 63.3 Cr (90.31%) 
EPS (in Rs.) 23.51 
14.38 YoY | 22.33 QoQ  
  
Year ending EPS: 102.7 Vs. 55.14 
View: Result is overall good and above expectation. YoY revenue flat but profit increased in YoY and QoQ. 
Business Updates & Highlights: 

Q4FY20 EBITDA is around INR 55.9 Cr Vs. 39.3 Cr in Q4FY19 therefore up by 42.2% in YoY. EBITDA margin is  6.5% Vs. 4.6% in Q4FY19 therefore up by 190 bps. 

FY20 EBITDA to Rs. 228.2 Vs. 140.5 Cr in FY19 therefore up by 62% in YoY. EBITDA margin of 5.2% Vs. 4.7% in FY19.   

Finance cost in Q4F7.6 Cr Vs. 8.8 Cr in Q4FY19 therefore declined by 13.6% in YoY. 
Key business updates 
Company is primarily into five operating segment viz. Consumer electronics – 45.7%, Lighting products – 30%, Home Appliances – 10.5%, Mobile Phones – 7%, Security systems – 6%.  

Q4FY20 YoY topline growth for consumer electronics – 22%, Lighting products – (16%), Home Appliances – (3%), Mobile Phones – (10%), Security system – (20%).  

Q4FY20 YoY bottom line growth for consumer electronic – 138%, Lighting product – 18%, Home appliances – 4%, Mobile phones – 416%, Security system – 20%. Despite negative topline growth for some of the business segment the company maintain good line of operating profit.  
Financial 

ROE and ROCE is around 26% and 33% respectively and book value per share is around INR 385 and share is currently trading at 13x of its book value. Company is currently trading at annualized PE of around 49.5 which is expensive as per Industry benchmark. Promoter holding is around 36.1% in the company which is low and slightly decreased in QoQ. FIIs and mutual fund hold around 10.8% and 22.1% in the company. Cash and cash equivalent from operating activities as of March 2020 is around INR 237 Cr Vs. 143 Cr as of March 2019. Debt as of March 20 is around INR 86 Cr Vs. 141 Cr in March 2019 (**Very positive**). A/c receivable is around 43 days which is also good and fair.  

Position: Share strong support price is INR 4,850. Long term investor can continue with the company with target price of INR 5700. Short term share will also perform despite in ASM. 

Share View: Share price high 5,572 (52 week) and now 4,976. Dixon Technologies provides design focused solutions in consumer durables, home appliances, lighting, mobile phones and security devices to customers across the globe, along with repairing and refurbishment services of a wide range of products including set top boxes, mobile phones and LED TV panels.

Opportunities:  Company has diversified business model according to current and future market. The share has achieved at all time high despite market corrected heavily. As per the current report Dixon is also going to make Covid – 19 Testing machine also. Dixon became leader of Indian EMS industry by: i) entering multiple segments, ii) backward integration, iii) focus on ODM solution. As per the current innovative technology Dixon can be good performer in longer run. Despite YoY top line decreased in some segment but bottom line improved and significantly well performed.

Risk: Due to Covid – 19 outbreak the company topline impacted in the Q4 and it can be also be impacted in Q1 and Q2 FY21 as well. Since spending currently through essential products and goods.  
Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Graphite India Ltd - Q4 FY20 Results

Graphite India Ltd - Q4 FY20 Results

Graphite India Ltd
CMP: 188
Total income from operations 602 Cr 
1,693 Cr (-64.46%)  YoY | 643 Cr (-6.32%) QoQ 
Year ending revenue: 3,094 Cr Vs. 7,858 Cr (-60.61%)

Net Profit of (7) Cr 
562 Cr (-101.27%) YoY (353) Cr (101.83%) QoQ 
Year ending Net profit: 45 Cr Vs. 3,396 Cr (-98.61%)

EPS (in Rs.) (0.37)
28.74 YoY | (18.08) QoQ 
Year ending EPS: 2.30 Vs. 173.80

View: Result is below expectation and continuously declined. YoY revenue significantly declined and company also posted also. However since comparison from QoQ revenue slightly declined but losses significantly reduced. 

Business Updates & Highlights

Q4FY20 EBITDA is around INR (3) Cr Vs. 934 Cr in Q4FY19 Vs. (445) Cr therefore declined by 100.7% in YoY and 99% in QoQ. EBITDA margin is (0%) Vs. 55% in Q4FY19. 

FY20 EBITDA to Rs. 95 Crores Vs. 5,233 Cr in FY19 therefore declined by 98% in YoY. EBITDA margin of 3% Vs. 67% in FY19.  

Key business updates

Due to steep fall in electrode prices, Inventory has been recognized on Net Realizable Value as per Ind AS, resulting in a fair value adjustment of carrying inventory. FY2020 – Rs. 584 Crores write down. Q4 FY2020 – Reversal of Rs. 61 Crores out of the write down of Rs. 490 Cores in Q3 FY2020.

In Q3 FY2020 - The Company has recognized loss of Rs. 39 crores as per the Insolvency Resolution process, towards sales made to one of its customers in earlier period

The capacity utilization during the year was 55% as compared to 86% in FY2019.

Financial

ROE and ROCE is around 8% and 18% respectively and book value per share is around INR 180 and share is currently trading at 1.2x of its book value. Company is currently trading at annualized PE of around 101 which is too expensive as per Industry benchmark. Promoter holding is around 65.2% in the company which is stable and fair. FIIs and insurance cos hold around 9% and 3.5% in the company. Cash and cash equivalent from operating activities as of March 2020 is around INR 171 Cr Vs. 1,770 Cr as of March 2019. Debt as of March 20 is around INR 416 Cr and cash & cash equivalent as of March 20 is around 2,008 Cr.

Position: Share strong support price is INR 180. Book and exit based on your risk appetite. 

Share View: Share price high 427 (52 week) and now 203 almost 50% corrected from their peak. Graphite India is the largest Indian producer of graphite electrodes and one of the largest globally, by total capacity. Its manufacturing capacity of 98,000 tonnes per annum is spread over three plants at Durgapur and Nashik in India and Nurnberg in Germany. Graphite electrodes are used in electric arc furnace (“EAF”) based steel mills and is a consumable item for the steel industry. The graphite electrode industry is highly consolidated with the top five major global players accounting for almost 75% of the high end UHP electrode capacity.

Opportunities:  Share is currently trading at 80% discount for their all-time high 1100 in 1.5 years back. Global slowdown in steel demand coupled with increased steel exports from China is expected to impact demand of electrodes. Electrode capacities have been ramped up in China. However, EAF capacities have not kept pace due to higher scrap cost and electricity cost thus creating an imbalance. Excess electrode volumes are being exported to other countries at cheaper rates

Risk: India removed anti dumping duties on graphite electrodes imported from China in September 2018 which has resulted in increased imports. Steel prices also continue to remain under pressure and combination of these factors have resulted in significant correction of electrode prices. Continuously deteriorated top line as well as bottom line on YoY and QoQ now Covid also further correct the company overall product demand. 

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Sector Overview of Electrical Equipment Producers

Sector Overview of Electrical Equipment Producers

Electrical Equipment Producers
This Industry is Having MCap of around 1 Lakh cr with Sales of 50000 cr & Profits 3000 cr. 

Industry growing by domestic consumption as well as increasing exports. Growth of 15% - 20% is seen for the last 2 decades. India was having 40 cr population without electricity till 2011 v/s just 80 lakh in China. Huge growth was there in this Industry as Electric Consumption/capita was very low but yes was increasing consistently. Many companies like Havells, Polycab, Fincables, HonAuto, VGuard were able to cash this growth. 


Havells: CMP 551: 

Company: A high growth, low debt, and highest market in this industry & strong R-O-E put company in the list of Wealth Creators. Able to increase its business from 200 cr to 10000 cr and Profit from 10 cr to 800 cr during the last 17 Years. Today’s Profis is 4X to Yesterday’s sales. During the Past 17 Years there was not a single year when sales were down. Hence investment of 1 lakh is already 4.7 Crore as well as 11 lakh dividend received during the past 17 years. Growth attracts wealth creation.  Havells by name seems to be some MNC but it was purchased from a person named Haveli Ram by Gupta and hence named Havells. Well diversified business in Switchgear, cables, Lighting & Consumer Durables (LLoyd), 55% sales comes from Cables & Electric Consumer. Many people in the group are holding this company since 80 and still there is no need to sell. It was and is a wealth creator company and best among the industry.  

Current Scenario : Since Q1 last year we have seen the sales in pressure after the long 2 decades. A challenging year with unfavorable macros, the slowdown in infrastructure activities, weak market liquidity and then final knock with COVID -19. Q4 commenced on a healthy note with Jan-Feb witnessing a revival in consumer products. But Covid-19 disrupted supply chain from China in Jan-Feb’ 20 and its contagion impacted the demand side with signs of fear and uncertainty among the trade channel since 15th March.  Havells closed its Offices, Factories, and Warehouses as per Government directive from 23rd March 2020 and moved to Work from Home (WFH). Consequently, there was a complete lockdown that crippled the revenue streams. We anticipate that ex-COVID the Q4 could have grown @ 9% against Dec’ YTD growth of (-) 1%. Hence Annual results are Too less than expected affected by slow down. Revenue has fallen by -6% and hence profit has fallen by -7% respectively. Results since Q1 are down and hence share is also trading at 52 week low. So current results were also inline as expected, muted results. 

Future: The demand continues to be weak, aggravated by real estate slow down, liquidity squeeze, and delays in projects. Should be prepared in advance that this year could be tough for this company, but yes can take benefit of this correction to accumulate, New Buying again can be done only during fall in the whole range of 540 to 420 and can hold this wealth creator for long term Multi-year rally. 60% strong Promoter Holding, 27% with FPI while 4% with MF companies. In the coming 2 years, we may see Havells enter into NIfty-50 also. 

HoneyAuto : CMP 26937: 

A wealth creator from Electric equip industry. Were making revenue and profits of around 300 cr and 9 cr 15 years back. Today able to make revenue and profits of 3400 cr and 500 cr. 10X growth in Business has created wealth for investors. Investment of 1 lakh is almost 1 cr with twice investment refunded in Dividends. Many people in the group have bought it near 2500 8 years back and it fell till 1500 (almost 50%) & it did not perform for a long 4 years. Today it is 10X. Patience is the name of the game. Some again bought it near 7500 in 2015. This is a debt-free, high margin, and India’s one of the TOP ROE company. 

Current Year sales have grown by 4% while Profits by 38%. The impact of COVID has been seen during Q4 cashflows. Yet, New buying still could be made during any falls near 18000 and can hold for long term wealth. 75% strong Promoter Holding while 15% with Varied MF companies.  

Finolex Cables Cmp: 260

Finolex Cables Limited is India's one of the largest and leading manufacturers of Electrical and Communication cables. A very good company form Other Elec. Equip. Have grown from the turnover & profits of 650 cr & 65 cr respectively during the year 2001 to today around 3200 cr and 400 cr respectively. Today's profit in the next 5 years will be more than yesterday’s revenue. Hence investment has grown 10X along with more then invested amount returned via dividends. Company with best margins in the segment and DebtFree status. Many people in this group are holding it since 140 during 2014. Our target as per 310% pot sheet was 548 and we have seen the rally from 140 to 750. Again currently in downward correction since last 2-3 years. Current Q 1 revenue have grown by Just 2% and hence Profits have fallen by -17% due to pressure on margins. Sales were affected by subdued construction activity, slowdown in automobile and communication sectors. It is expected that with Government formation completed by the end of June, programs to improve connectivity with broadband and related technologies, will gain momentum. Finolex has added Electrical Switches, LED based Lamps, Fans, low voltage MCBs and Water Heaters to its range of products. New Buying again can be done in the whole range of 336 to 296 & can hold it for long term wealth creation. DspBlackRock added 2.29 Lakh shares 3 Years back  at 450 and currently trading at better price. 19% Holding is with Varied MF companies while 7% with FPI.

VGuard CMP 243


Again a wealth creator from other electric equip industry. Debt free and high growth. Able to grow its revenue and profits by 100% during last 4-5 years. Many people in the group hold this company since long time near 10 and have accumulated during so many years. We have seen 20X rally during the last 10 years. Current year  revenue has grown by 11% while Profits are grown by 24% due to high cost effectiveness even after the effect of  Floods in Kerala last year. Still buying can be done during any fall near 175 and can hold it for long term wealth. Strong 64% Promoter Holding while 12% MF holdings and 13% FPI.

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Review of S&P 500 : What Happened ?

Review of S&P 500 : What Happened ?

Review of S&P 500 : What Happened ?
S&P 500 erases its loss for the year as stocks rally on reopening optimism

The S&P 500 wiped out all its 2020 losses on Monday as traders grew more optimistic about the prospects of an economic recovery while states continue to reopen. 

Stocks finished the day on session highs with the S&P 500 jumped 1.2%, or 38.46, to 3,232.39, turning positive for the year after bouncing about 47% off its March low.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 461.46 points higher, or 1.7%, to 27,572.44. The Nasdaq Composite was up 1.1%, or 28.39 points, at 9,924.74 and hit a fresh record high. 

"What is clearly happening is the excitement of reopening is allowing a lot of these companies that have been casualties of Covid to come back and come back in force, " said Stanley Druckenmiller, chairman and CEO of the Duquesne Family Office, on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "With a combination of the Fed money and, in particular, a vaccine where the news has been very, very good."

3.0 L COVID cases vs SP500 index

"Well I've been humbled many times in my career, and I'm sure I'll be many times in the future. And the last three weeks certainly fits that category," added the legendary hedge fund manager, who admitted he missed the comeback because he underestimated the Federal Reserve.

Stocks tied to the reopening of the economy, including airlines, retailers and cruise lines, led the gains once again. United Airlines was up 14.8%, while American Airlines jumped 9.2%. Kohl's added 8.4%. Shares of Carnival Corp. were up 15.8%.

Wall Street was also riding high on the back of a surprise surge in U.S. employment. The Labor Department said Friday the economy added 2.5 million jobs in May, a record. Economists polled by Dow Jones had forecast a drop of more than 8 million.

"The 2.5 million rebound in employment last month reverses only a small fraction of the jobs lost since February," said Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. "But considering we and the consensus had been braced for another large decline, it builds on the signs from some of the other macro data this week that economic activity is rebounding faster and more vigorously than we had anticipated."

The Dow surged 6.8% last week while the S&P 500 jumped 4.9%. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was the first of the three major indexes to trade back at all-time highs since the coronavirus pandemic shuttered the global economy.

"The stock market is almost looking past Covid and looking forward to the reopening," said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial. "The concerns of another Covid outbreak are real, but the stock market is clearly saying it is much more in tune with the opening of the economy."

Detrick warned, however, "the market is ripe for a well-deserved break" after its blistering rally off the March lows. 

Since March 23, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 47% while the Dow has gained over 50%. Those gains come in large part from expectations of a swift economic recovery. 

"It appears that the most rapid bear market in history has been followed by the most dramatic recovery in history," wrote Marc Chaikin, CEO of Chaikin Analytics. "While COVID-19 cases are still growing in certain states, particularly outside of densely populated urban areas, investors see the glass as half-full and are looking ahead 12-18 months."

Data compiled by Open Table shows restaurant bookings across the U.S. are now 80% below last year's levels. In April, bookings were down 100%. Hotel occupancy rates, home purchases and U.S. air travel have also started to increase.

Investors will be concentrating on the Federal Reserve's statement on interest rates Wednesday and a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed is expected to reiterate its commitment to unlimited asset purchases to keep markets functioning.

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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PVR - Q4 FY20 Results

PVR - Q4 FY20 Results

PVR - Q4 FY20 Results
Total income from operations 645.1 Cr 
837.6 Cr (-22.96%)  YoY | 915.7 Cr (-29.52%) QoQ 
Year ending revenue: 3,414 Cr Vs. 3,085 Cr (10.61%)

Net Profit of (74.6) Cr 
46.7 Cr (-260.87%) YoY 36.2 Cr (-305.23%) QoQ 
Year ending Net profit: 26.8 Cr Vs. 189.4 Cr (-86.21%)

EPS (in Rs.) (15.25)
9.65 YoY | 7.19 QoQ 
Year ending EPS: 5.47 Vs. 39.52

View: Result is declined. YoY revenue declined and company also posted losses in this quarter.  Beginning March 11, 2020, Company started closing its screens in accordance with the order passed by various regulatory authorities and within a few days most of our cinemas across the country were shut down.

Business Updates & Highlights:

Q4FY20 EBITDA is around INR 189 Cr Vs. 169 Cr in Q4FY19 Vs. 303.2 Cr in Q3FY20 therefore up by 11.8% in YoY and declined by 37.6% in QoQ. EBITDA Margin was around 29% in Q4FY20. 

FY20 EBITDA was around INR 1,114 Cr Vs. 619 Cr in corresponding previous year up by 80% in YoY. EBITDA margin was 32%. 

The overall EBITDA margins of the company were 18% (after excluding IND-AS 116 impact). Further the PAT of the company, for Q4 and FY 20 was impacted by an amount of Rs. 32crs due to a one- time re-measurement of deferred tax assets of the company.

Key business updates

The company business has adversely impacted due to lockdown imposed in entire country not only for Q4FY20 quarter but next two quarter company business will face more pain since all movie, production house, cinema hall still not opened. So due to this company has made the following plans:

  1. Reducing in employee costs by reducing the compensation across all levels during the lockdown period and reduction in headcount as well
  2. Invoked force majeure closure as per their agreements with landlords seeking waiver of rentals and maintenance charges during lockdown period. 
  3. Also ongoing discussion with landlords for reducing the rentals post lockdown period.
  4. Reduction of all overhead expenditure during the period of lockdown.
FY20 company added 87 screens, highest ever screens opened in a financial year by any cinema operator in India as well as expanded to Sri Lanka with a 9 screen premium property

The company approved the fund raising of up to Rs. 300 crore through issuance of equity shares of face value of Rs. 10 each (“Equity Shares”) on rights issue basis ( as decided by the Board of Directors or the Fund Raise Committee ) to the eligible equity shareholders of the Company

Financial

ROE and ROCE is around 16% and 19% respectively and book value per share is around INR 198 and share is currently trading at 5.9x of its book value. Company is currently trading at annualized PE of around 210 which is too expensive as per Industry benchmark. Promoter holding is around 18.5% in the company which is too low. FIIs and Mutual fund hold around 38.3% and 20.0% in the company. Cash and cash equivalent from operating activities as of March 2020 is around INR 787 Cr Vs. 829 Cr as of March 2019. Debt including lease liabilities is also increasing YoY and finance cost in this quarter is also too high which is around INR 481 Cr as of March 2020 Vs. 128 Cr in March 2019. 

Position: Share strong support price is INR 1,060/940. Long term investor can continue with the company based on their risk appetite.

Share View: Share price high 2,121 (52 week) and now 1,160 almost 50% corrected from their peak. PVR Ltd. is the largest and the most premium film exhibition company in India. Since its inception in 1997, the brand has redefined the cinema industry and the way people watch movies in the country. Currently PVR operates a cinema circuit of 845 Screens in 176 Properties in 71 Cities (India and Sri Lanka).

Opportunities:  PVR is monopolistic business in North India and currently No. 1 in country. due to cost optimization like reducing employee cost, overhead expenditure and other cost and rent waiver also company can survive in this pandemic. 

Risk: The current quarter Q1FY21 and Q2FY21 and Q3FY21 can be more challenging because Cinema is still shut and once opened still doubt they can generate good source of revenue in future. Further JIO Cinema is also providing more challenging since lockdown many series which releasing were pending directly released via OTT mechanism. The public perception also changed towards Cinema since proper social distancing with movie experience can be posed more challenging in future. Rent waiver is still in under discussion stage. Finance cost is also worried and continuously increased as company was aggressive to acquire the multiple deals in past.

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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