Result Analysis : Laurus Lab – Q2FY21

Result Analysis : Laurus Lab – Q2FY21

Total revenue from operations 1,139 Cr 

712 Cr (59.97%) YoY | 974 Cr (16.92%) QoQ 

Half yearly revenue: 2,113 Cr Vs. 1,263 Cr (65.84%)

Net Profit of 242.2 Cr 

56.5 Cr (332.12%) YoY 171.8 Cr (40.89%) QoQ 

Half yearly Net profit: 414 Cr Vs. 71.6 Cr (478.21%)

EPS (in Rs.) 4.50

1.06 YoY | 3.21 QoQ 

Half year ending EPS: 7.71 Vs. 1.34

View: Result is above expectation and strong. YoY and QoQ revenue increased and profit multifold in YoY. Margin continue expanding in QoQ and YoY. 

Business Updates & Highlights

Q2FY21 EBITDA was around INR 373.5 Cr Vs. 137.8 Cr in Q2FY20 Vs. 278.2 Crs in Q1FY21 therefore up by 172.2% in YoY and up by 34.1% in QoQ. EBITDA margin is around 32.7% Vs. 19.2% in YoY Vs. 28.5% in QoQ. Therefore EBITDA margin improved by 1350 bps in YoY and 420 bps in QoQ.

H1FY21 EBITDA was around INR 651.4 Crs Vs. 220.2 Crs in H1FY20 therefore up by 196% in YoY. EBITDA margin in H1FY21 was around 30.8% Vs. 17.4% in H1FY20. 

R & D spent of INR 85 Cr and 4% of sales in H1 FY21.

Business vertical performance

Generic FDF

Revenue growth of 183% for the quarter (YoY) Vs. 9.3% in QoQ and 202% for H1 (YoY).

Generic FDF business maintains robust growth momentum for the quarter. The growth in the quarter was led by higher sales from tender business in LMIC; having a strong order book for coming quarters.

Launched TLE400 in LMIC markets . Launched TLE400 & TLE600 in US market. 

2 product validations completed for formulation apart from filling of 26 ANDAs & NDAs. 8 products received Final Approvals, and 8 products have received Tentative Approvals

Synthesis & Ingredients

Revenue showcased the growth of 36% for the quarter (YoY) Vs. 16% in QoQ and 37% for H1 (YoY) 

Total Number of Active Projects in the CDMO division stood at 49 as of H1 FY21

Generic API

Revenue from Generic API segment showcased the growth of 22% for the quarter (YoY) Vs. 28.4% in QoQ and 30% for H1 (YoY)

The Anti-Viral segment showed growth of 20% in YoY and 12.8% in QoQ and 19% for H1 (Y-o-Y) and is expected to have good growth for the full year

In the Other API segment - Contract manufacturing of Generic APIs showing robust growth 18% in the quarter (YoY) and 80% for H1 (YoY)

Filed 264 patent applications and 130 patents granted as on Sept 30, 2020.

The Board of Directors of the Company in their meeting held on October 29, 2020 have approved for the payment of interim dividend of Rs. 0.80/- ( 40%) per equity share of Rs.2/each

Financial

ROE and ROCE is around INR 41.8% and 37.5% respectively and book value per share is around INR 33 and share is currently trading at 10x of its book value. Company is currently trading at annualized PE (forward PE) of 24 which is good as per Industry benchmark. Promoter holding is around 32.1% in the company which is low but stable. FIIs and Mutual fund hold around 20.7% and 3.3% in the company which FIIs increased by more than 4% in this quarter also.. Company is very strong operating cash flow as of Sep 2020 it was around INR 336 Cr Vs. 142 Cr in Sep 2019 (Very Strong). Borrowing is also declined in this quarter and borrowing cost is also downward. 

Share View Share price high 340 (52 week) and now 331. Laurus Labs is a leading research-driven Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Company in India. Ine of the leading manufacturers of API for Anti-Retroviral (ARV), Oncology, Cardiovascular, Anti-Diabetics, Anti-Asthma, and Gastroenterology. Formulation manufacturing to service all leading markets of North America, Europe, and Low Middle-Income Countries (LMIC).

Position: Share support price is INR 300/270. Long term investor should continue with the company and any correction will give good opportunity

Opportunities Laurus has a portfolio with more than 60 commercialized APIs with strong presence in ARV, Oncology, anti-diabetic and Hepatitis C therapeutic segments. Further the company has forayed into formulation on a large scale from Unit II in FY20 resulting in major revenue being contributed from that segment i.e. about 29% in FY20 as against about 2% during FY19. Partnership with Global Fund offers higher volume contracts with reasonable predictability in FDF Tender business. Have a healthy order book for FY 21 & beyond in FDF CMO business with a strategic partner in EU. Generic FDF segment contributed 38% in H1 FY 21 to total revenue as against just 2% in FY19. Increased focus and eventually dedicated R&D and Manufacturing for Synthesis Business and overall focusing on growth model for future years. Doubling capacity of FDF by 2022. Among top 5 in India in terms of Reactor capacities. Strong board of management and it was promoted by Dr. Satyanarayana Chava (Whole time Director & CEO) who has over 30 years of experience in the pharmaceutical industry and oversees the technical aspects of operation including R&D, process development, etc. The company has filed 257 patents application out of which 116 patents were granted as on March 31st, 2020.

Risk Laurus has moderate operating cycle period which has improved to 146 days during FY20 as against 161 days during FY19 still its on higher side as compare to other Pharma companies. Laurus is exposed to foreign exchange fluctuation risk in view of large volume and high value transactions of export and import, a phenomenon common to the players in the industry. The pharmaceutical industry is highly regulated in many countries and requires various approvals, licenses, registrations and permissions for business activities. The approval process for a new product registration is complex, lengthy and expensive.

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Result Analysis : Astec Life – Q2FY21

Result Analysis : Astec Life – Q2FY21

Total revenue from operations 155 Cr 

140.2 Cr (10.71%) YoY | 111.9 Cr (38.52%) QoQ 

Half yearly revenue: 266.9 Cr Vs. 217.2 Cr (22.54%)

Net Profit of 17.8 Cr 

5.3 Cr (235.82%) YoY 16.1 Cr (10.61%) QoQ 

Half yearly Net profit: 34.04 Cr Vs. 4.1 Cr (750.21%)

EPS (in Rs.) 9.11

2.70 YoY | 8.26 QoQ 

Half year ending EPS: 17.3 Vs. 2.13

View: Result is overall good. Although revenue marginally increased in YoY but profit up by more than 200%.

Business Updates & Highlights

Q2FY21 EBITDA was around INR 29.3 Cr Vs. 15.2 Cr in Q2FY20 Vs. 28.2 Crs in Q1FY21 therefore up by 92.8% in YoY and up by 3.9% in QoQ. EBITDA margin is around 18.9% Vs. 10.9% in YoY Vs. 25.2% in QoQ. Therefore EBITDA margin improved by 800 bps in YoY and declined by 630 bps in QoQ.

H1FY21 EBITDA was around INR 57.6 Crs Vs. 21.6 Crs in H1FY20 therefore up by 166% in YoY. EBITDA margin in H1FY21 was around 21.5% Vs. 9.1% in H1FY20. 

Financial

ROE and ROCE is around INR 22% and 21% respectively and book value per share is around INR 126 and share is currently trading at 9x of its book value. Company is currently trading at annualized PE (forward PE) of 32 which is good as per Industry benchmark. Promoter holding is around 70% in the company which very strong but decreased by more than 2% in QoQ. FIIs and Mutual fund hold around 0.6% and 0.3% in the company. Company is very strong operating cash flow as of Sep 2020 it was around INR 18.9 Cr Vs. (1.1) Cr in Sep 2019 Vs. 16.9 Cr in March 2020. (Very Strong). The good thing is company is continuously reducing their debt and interest cost significantly down in this quarter in Q2FY21 it was around 1.13 Cr Vs. 3.58 Cr in Q2FY20 Vs. 1.54 Cr in Q1FY21. 

Share View: Share price high 1,365 (52 week) and now 1,090. Astec LifeSciences Limited is an India-based company and part of Godrej Group. The Company is engaged in agro chemicals, including fungicides and herbicides business. It manufactures a range of agrochemical active ingredients and pharmaceutical intermediates.

Position: Share support price is INR 1000. Share can delivered good return in short to mid term. 

Opportunities : Astec has an extensive track record spanning more than two decades and it enjoys an established position in the manufacturing of technical grade fungicides. Supported by its technical competency, the company has established itself as one of the preferred suppliers of technical grade fungicides to a reputed clientele, comprising large MNCs, in the domestic and export markets. Furthermore, the company’s investments in the new R&D lab are expected to provide a significant boost to R&D capabilities, enabling it to develop new products and also benefit from the opportunities that the global demand shift from China may present for the Indian entities. Continuously reducing their debt on YoY and QoQ. Double digit growth in both topline and bottom line for past 5 years. Last 5 year CAGR growth is around 35%. Strong parentage and financial flexibility as a part of Godrej Group. Astec has benefitted in terms of managerial as well as financial support from GAVL. Astec continues to benefit from the strong financial flexibility arising on being a part of the Godrej Group.

Risk: Company’s revenues remain susceptible to the vagaries of monsoons and the regulatory risks associated with the ban of products by regulatory authorities upon review or change in regulations. Moreover, its profit margins remain exposed to the fluctuations in raw material prices, primarily those sourced from China. QoQ margin was declined in this quarter. Astec derives a large part of its revenues from a few products within the Triazole fungicide category. 

Sources: Various publications

 Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Coffee Can Investing

Coffee Can Investing

Coffee Can Investing !!!!! is it really something or some kind of joke, no today with this article I want to draw your kind attention towards a new concept of COFFEE CAN INVESTING.  

So before going further lets first discuss about What is coffee can investing?

The strategy gets its name because in the old west people who invest in the stock market would receive physical certificates of proof which they would put away in coffee cans. They would hide these cans in their mattresses later forgetting about them.

These stocks would eventually grow enormously making its holder rich when he found it again. The success of Coffee Can Investing depends entirely on the wisdom and foresight used to select stocks in the portfolio.

" Hence it is a concept based on the research done by Rob Kirby. In simple words, one selects a list of stocks or mutual funds and invests in them, and then literally forgets about it. "

Why coffee can investing is not popular in India? 

Only around 5% of the Indian population indulges in the Indian stock markets. Around 95% prefer to invest their savings in Land and Gold. This could be because we as people tend to put our trust in assets that we can see and touch. Due to this land came to be considered as one of the best investments due to the boom in the period between 2003 to 2013. Due to this India has currently become one of the priciest markets in the world. But the prices are not followed by an apt demand. 

Out of those 5% investing in stock markets, around 95% of them would be day traders only and rest would be medium term traders who watches portfolio daily and exit the stocks if it gives 10-15% returns. Only a handful of people investing in stocks which may be counted in numbers would be in coffee can investing which may be around 0.05% of those people investing in stock markets.

Benefits of Coffee Can Investing

1. Minimum Expenses

Coffee Can Investing can be said to have been built on this factor. Apart from the cost that occurs during the one-time investment, there will be no more transaction cost for the remaining holding period. Tracking an index involves multiple additions and eliminations to a fund portfolio. Due to this, the investments are affected regularly from brokerage and other expenses transaction costs.

A Coffee Can Portfolio created by the individual would not have an Expense Ratio. Also, investors rarely consider how taxes affect their investments. Regular purchases and sales would result in added taxes on any profit earned. 

2. No need for tracking the portfolio.

This is also one of the necessities of Coffee Can Investing. Once we have filtered and achieved a portfolio of quality stock the only thing that is required is for them to be put aside and left alone for a decade.

When we invest we unfortunately always try and keep track of what is going on with the company. CEO changes, political and other economic changes would all stimulate us to act on our holdings. In fact, a Coffee Can Portfolio would even require us to not even look at our stocks during the pandemic.

3. Not Affected by volatility

The filters to create a suitable coffee can portfolio ensures that only the best stocks as per the present scenario make it to your portfolio. However, in the short term, these stocks will face very high volatility in reaction to the market, political, and other changes. In the long term, the stocks will only be judged by their intrinsic quality. In the long term, the portfolio will face reduced impact from market volatility.

4. Out performance by 8-10%

According to ‘Coffee Can Investing’ a portfolio that has followed all the steps will be performing better than the market and beating it by 8-10%

Why don’t funds just follow Coffee Can Investing?

If this investment strategy enables you to outperform the market by such a large margin then the question arises as to why shouldn’t mutual funds just follow this investing strategy.

One of the major reasons is the wait for a very long term it may be more then 10 years. In Coffee Can to judge how you have performed, you will have to wait for over a decade. Very few investors would be willing to commit to such a fund.

Imagine a scenario where a fund does start coffee can investing. It would have to set up a team that would prepare a portfolio for the fund. What next? Coffee can would require you to simply ignore the investment for the next decade. Setting up a fund only as Coffee Can will have a huge setup cost at the beginning with returns only after a decade. In regular investment firms, the employees are rewarded for the right decisions, investments, and performance. These benefits would only be available to the employees of such firms only after a decade. This would be highly unfair to them.

Coffee can investing doesn't suit to all kind of people as it requires not looking at the portfolio. 

Now, question arises, who will apply such kind of concept in real life. And the answer is, we can (retail customers) apply such concept to their portfolio while doing any investment. If one is having a long term horizon, capital and patience then this concept will be wonderful. The stocks should be picked carefully which have good fundamental and strong growth and investment can be done. 

Happy Investing!!!!

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Result Analysis: APL Apollo – Q2FY21

Result Analysis:  APL Apollo – Q2FY21 

Total revenue from operations 2,202 Cr
1,647 Cr (33.70%) YoY | 1,110 Cr (98.32%) QoQ

Half yearly revenue: 3,311 Cr Vs. 3,719 Cr (-10.94%)

Net Profit of 102.6 Cr
59.6 Cr (72.82%) YoY 21.9 Cr (381.49%) QoQ

Half yearly Net profit: 124.5 Cr Vs. 111.9 Cr (11.71%)

EPS (in Rs.) 36.80
23.91 YoY |6.72 QoQ

Half year ending EPS: 43.52 Vs. 44.84

View: Result is above expectation and strong. YoY revenue and profit both have up. Strong recovery as compare to QoQ after business resume.
 

Business Updates & Highlights

Q2FY21 EBITDA was around INR 169.1 Cr Vs. 72 Cr in Q2FY20 Vs. 71.1 Cr in QoQ Q1FY21 therefore up by 134.7% in YoY and up by 135.1% in QoQ. EBITDA margin is around 7.6% Vs. 4.3% in YoY Vs. 6.4% in QoQ. Therefore EBITDA margin improved by 330 bps in YoY.

EBITDA per ton was INR 3,514 (+78% YoY).

Operating cash flow was 271% in H1FY21 Vs. 107% in FY20.
 

Split of Equity share

The sub-division of equity shares of the Company from the existing One (1) equity share of face value of Rs. 10/- each into Five (5) equity shares of face value of 2/- each. To facilitate larger shareholder base, to increase liquidity and to make the shares more affordable to investors. Record date yet to be notified and expected to completion in next 2-3 months subject to shareholders approval.
 

Financial

 

ROE and ROCE is around INR 17.9% and 21.3% respectively and book value per share is around INR 544 and share is currently trading at 5.7x of its book value. Company is currently trading at annualized PE of 36 which is average as per Industry benchmark. Promoter holding is around 39.5% in the company which is low but increased in QoQ.. Mutual fund hold around 13.5% in the company. Company is very strong operating cash flow as of Sep 2020 it was around INR 651.9 Cr Vs. 305 Cr in Sep 2019 (Very Strong). Debt equity ratio in Sep 2020 was 0.2 Vs. 0.6 in FY 2020 (Significantly improved) 

Share View

 

Share price high 3,195 (52 week) and now 3,106. APL Apollo Tubes Limited (APL Apollo) APLAPOLLO is India’s leading branded structural steel tube manufacturer. Headquartered at Delhi NCR, the Company operates 10 manufacturing facilities with a total capacity of 2.5 Million MTPA. APL Apollo’s multi-product offerings include over 1,500 varieties of Structural Tubes to be used for Residential and Commercial Construction and Infrastructure development. The Company’s vast distribution network of over 800 distributors is spread all across India, with warehouses cum- branch offices in over 28 cities.

Position: Share support price is INR 2,750/2500. Long term investor should continue with the company.
 

Opportunities

 

APL Apollo Tubes Ltd has created its dominant leadership in structural steel tube industry. The Q2FY21 performance was significantly better than Q1FY21, which was partially impacted due to disruption from COVID-19. 40% Market Share in Structural Steel Tubes and Growth rate is 27% CAGR in last 10 years. Sales Volume in FY11 was 195 (K Ton) Vs. 1,633 in FY20 (K Ton) significant growth. company is also catering new opportunities with more structured way like warehousing (As per JLL report there will be 344 mn sq. ft of warehousing space in India by 2022), affordable housing (Trends for affordable housing with low cost & faster completion is picking in India), urban Infra (Govt plans to start 100 additional airports by 2024, To invest Rs19,000 crore in upgrading airport infrastructure in the country, especially in smaller cities over next three years) and urban real estate India’s vertical growth pushed high-rises buildings with G+20 floors or more to record highs in 2019) etc. Monopolistic business with highest market share around 40% as per nearest competition its around 12%.
 

Risk

 

Low operating margin business and its around 7-8%. Despite having the largest capacity in the ERW segment, market share is estimated at 14-16% at present, although, estimated to increase to 18-20% in over the next 3 years. ERW pipe manufacturers are 'steel convertors' and fluctuation in raw material prices are passed on to the consumer but with a lag of 1-2 months. Hence, margins are susceptible to fluctuations in prices of steel (Hot rolled coil).

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Result Analysis : Larsen & Toubro Ltd Q2FY21

Result Analysis :  Larsen & Toubro Ltd Q2FY21

Larsen & Toubro Ltd.’s quarterly profit and revenue fell, and order inflows slowed, even as the nation eased the lock down curbs.

Net profit before exceptional item fell 41.8% year-on-year to Rs 1,462.84 crore in the quarter ended September, India’s largest engineering-to-construction company said in an exchange filing. That compares with the Rs 1,234.9-crore consensus estimate of analysts. 

Including exceptional item, the loss stands at Rs 2,322.10 crore.

L&T, in the reported quarter, posted an exceptional cost of Rs 3,732.30 crore, comprising impairment of funded exposure in the heavy forgings facility joint venture and impairment of assets in the power development business. 

 

L&T completed the sale of its electrical and automation unit to Schneider Electric during the July-September period. It also announced a *special dividend of Rs 18 apiece*

Revenue fell 12.2% over the year ago to Rs 31,034 crore

Operating profit fell 12% to Rs 5,318.77 crore Margin stood at 17.1%

The year-on-year numbers aren’t strictly comparable as last year’s figures don’t include Mindtree Ltd.’s results, which L&T acquired, and the switchgear business.

Order Book L&T’s order book inflow during the quarter stood at Rs 28,039 crore — a decline of 42% over the corresponding quarter a year ago.

International order during the quarter constituted 36% of the total order inflow. The consolidated order book of the group stood at Rs 2,98,856 crore as on Sept. 30, 2020.

L&T, which has stopped providing guidance for order inflow, said it's "seeing tremendous uncertainty in the current environment".

"We are still discovering what the new normal could be post Covid," said R Shanker Raman, chief financial officer at L&T during the press interaction.

"We are not a committing to a guidance this year." The company, however, received a letter of intent for high speed rail project or bullet train valued at Rs 25,000 crore. The project will be completed in four years, adding to order inflow in the third quarter.

Segment wise performance

Revenue YoY
Infrastructure 13,096 Cr (20%)
Hydrocarbon 4,050 Cr (6%)
IT & tech 6,200 Cr 5%
Financial 3,342 Cr (3%)
 

Outlook on Capital Spends

A strong emphasis by the government on infrastructure spending augurs well for the company, and the National Infrastructure Pipeline, which lays out a detailed capex road map till 2025, provides visibility on the domestic infrastructure outlook.

Sectors such as water, power transmission and distribution, metro/regional rapid transit system, railways, roads and expressways are witnessing increased traction as far as bidding / tendering activity is concerned.

 

View: It is a very good company for investment at current levels i.e in range of 890 to 950 with a long term target of 1300 . 

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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