Tuesday, June 9, 2020

JSW Steel -Stock Analysis

JSW Steel -Stock Analysis


JSW SteelIndia’s annual consumption of Steel is now 100mt. India is World 2nd Largest Steel Producer & Growth is driven by domestic demand as well as the availability of Raw Material & Cost-effective labor. It is one of the major contributors to India’s manufacturing OutPut. As we can see around 50 Listed companies but 80% Revenue comes from top 5 & 80% profit from top 2 ie Tata Steel and Jsw Steel the Largest Players.

The industry has grown well during the last 2 decades but the majority of them are in high debt Burden hence making losses, Just a few of them Make Profit and that too with the low average margin of 3%. Hard to Find a company with long profit-making Consistency yet can consider Jswsteel, TataSponge, Tata Metaliks as some of the good ones from the Wealth Destroyer Industry. Even the Current Year trend sales of the majority of the companies are down due to a globally muted economy combined with covid.

Jsw steel is among the lowest cost steel producers of the world.  Jswsteel once with revenue and profit of 2000 cr and 500 cr during 2002 is today able to generate revenue and profit of 80000 cr and 5000 cr respectively. Today’s profit is 2X to yesterday’s revenue.  Already recommended near 130 just 3-4 Years back and still can add during current fall. We may see Jswsteel  enter the elite club of 1 Lakh cr revenue making company till 2025 with 15000 cr plus profits and yes we were expecting this company to enter in Nifty-50 and yes just 2 years back we have already seen this thing. Considering the current slowdown in the economy worldwide lower consumption of Auto as well as consumer durables has been seen which affects the overall steel industry. Current revenue is as expected and revenue has fallen by -13% but Profits fell by -48% which were too low than expected. Margin decreased & debt increased. 

The current outlook is not good. All those holding since long can add more in the whole range of 140 to 175 and can hold it for the long term. Best among Metals. India would continue to remain a bright spot in global steel with the highest growth in steel consumption. 
 

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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AB Capital – Q4 FY20 Result

AB Capital – Q4 FY20AB Capital – Q4 FY20


CMP – 56 
Total Income from operations at 4,844 Crs 
4,729 Crs YoY (2.42%) 4,325 Crs (12.03%) QoQ 
Year ending: 16,792 Cr vs. 15,172 Cr (10.65%) 
Net Profit of 143.7 Cr 
258.4 Cr YoY (-44.42%) 250.4 Crs (-42.87%) QoQ 
Year ending: 919.8 Cr Vs. 870.9 Crs (5.58%) 
EPS (in Rs.) 0.61 
1.17 YoY | 1.09 QoQ 
Year ending EPS: 4.06 Vs. 3.95 
View:  Average result. YoY total income increased but profit decreased significantly in Q4 due to impairment of financial instruments in the tune of INR 348 Cr Vs. 65 Cr in corresponding previous quarter.  
Business Highlights & Updates 
Interest Income for the Q4FY20 is around INR 1,736 Cr Vs. 1,753 Cr in Q4FY 19 Vs. 1,775 Cr in Q3FY20. Therefore declined by 1% in YoY and 2.2% in QoQ.  
Interest income for the FY20 is around INR 7,128 Cr Vs. 6,418 Cr in FY19 therefore up by 11% in YoY. 
Finance cost for the Q4FY20 is around INR 1,123 Cr Vs. 1,114 Cr in Q4FY19 Vs. 1,142 Cr in Q3FY20. Therefore up by marginally 0.8% in YoY and declined by 1.7% in QoQ. 
Lending 
Overall lending book (NBFC and Housing Finance) stood at Rs. 59,159 Crores. Raised over Rs. 15,000 Crores of long-term funds during the year. Company has reduced ticket sizes across the board.  
NBFC business 
Loan book at Rs. 47,057 Crores with focus on SME and retail segments. 
Net Interest Margin expanded by 38 bps year on year to 5.29% 
Additional COVID related provisions of Rs. 163 Crores in Q4 FY20 
Q4FY20 Finance business credit provisioning: 2.73% Vs. 0.49% in YoY. FY20 1.46% Vs. 0.45%.  
Housing Finance business 
Loan book at Rs. 12,102 Crores, with 95% retail. Maintained net interest margins at over 3%. Cost to Income ratio improved to 46%, as compared to 61% in previous year, aided by scale and operating efficiencies. 
Q4FY20 Finance business credit provisioning: 0.91% Vs. 0.19% in YoY. FY20 0.59% Vs. 0.19%.  
Asset Management 
Total average assets under management (AAUM) at Rs. 2,66,988 Crores   
Domestic equity AAUM at 36% of overall domestic AAUM. Profit after tax grew 10% year on year to Rs. 494 Crores; Return on equity at 38.9%.  
Big increase in the number of transactions being done digitally, from 57% in 2018 to 95% in Apr-May ‘20 
Insurance  
Total gross premium of life insurance and health insurance grew 11% year on year to Rs. 8,882 Crores 
**Life Insurance**Individual First Year Premium (FYP) stood at Rs 1,702 Crores, with year on year growth impacted due to the nation-wide lockdown in last two weeks of March ’20 
Renewal Premium grew 21% year on year to Rs. 4,353 Crore 
Health Insurance business 
Gross written premium at Rs. 872 Crores, grew 76% over the previous year, ahead of industry growth of 27% for Stand Alone Health Insurers, with Retail business contributing 72%. 
Business continues to build scale with significant improvement in combined ratio at 134% vs. 149% in the previous year. 
Total active customer base grown to ~20 Million 
Financials

ROE and ROA is around 9.8% and 1% respectively and book value per share is around INR 41 and share is currently trading at 1.35x of its book value. Company is currently trading at annualized PE of around 14 which is fair as per Industry benchmark. Promoter holding in the company is around 70.5% which is decreased by around 2% in QoQ. FIIs, mutual fund and Insurance cos hold around 2.2%. 1.6% and 2.6% respectively. Cash & Cash equivalent as of FY20 is around INR 2,825 Cr Vs. 739 Cr in FY19 
Share price high 115 (52 week) and now 56 more than 51% corrected from their peak. Aditya Birla Capital Limited (ABCL) is the holding company for the financial services businesses of the Aditya Birla Group. With subsidiaries that have a strong presence across Protecting, Investing and Financing solutions.
Share support price is INR 48/42. Long term investor should continue with the company. 
Opportunities
Share corrected more than 50% from their peak due to NBFC overall sector stress and due to Covid – 19 impact health care business and life insurance business also growing. 

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Relaxo - Q4 FY20 Result

Relaxo - Q4 FY20Relaxo - Q4 FY20

Total revenue from operations 540.5 Cr 
635.7 Cr (-14.96%)  YoY | 599.8 Cr (-9.82%) QoQ 
Year ending revenue: 2,410 Cr Vs. 2,292 Cr (5.10%)

Net Profit of 51.8 Cr 
54.4 Cr (-4.77%) YoY 54.1 Cr (-4.23%) QoQ 
Year ending Net profit: 226 Cr Vs. 175 Cr (29.11%)

EPS (in Rs.) 2.08
2.19 YoY | 2.18 QoQ 
Year ending EPS: 9.10 Vs. 7.06

View: Result is slightly below expectation. YoY and QoQ revenue and profit both have declined. Although margin improved in this quarter and also improved in full financial year. 
Business Updates & Highlights

Q4FY20 EBITDA is around INR 100.1 Cr Vs. 96.5 Cr in Q4FY19 Vs. 103.7 Cr in Q3FY20 therefore up by 3.7% in YoY and declined by 3.5% in QoQ. FY20 EBITDA is around INR 417.9 Cr Vs. 337.2 Cr in FY19 therefor up by at 23.9%. 

Q4FY20 EBITDA margin is around 18.2% Vs. 15.1% in Q4FY19 Vs. 17.3% in Q3FY20. FY20 EBITDA margin is around 17.3% Vs. 14.7% in FY19.

Export sale contributed around 100 Cr or about 4% to company’s sales. 

Revenue of the Company has grown @12.89% till Dec 19, however, due to nationwide lockdown in the month of March 2020, growth for the current quarter has been adversely effected.

Board of Directors has declared Interim dividend for the F.Y. 2019-20 of Re 1.25 per equity share and paid in March 2020 which is final dividend for FY19-20

Financial

ROE and ROCE is around 19% and 26% respectively and book value per share is around INR 49 and share is currently trading at 15.7x of its book value. Company is currently trading at annualized PE of around 83 which is very high as per industry benchmark. Promoter holding is around 70.9% in the company which is very strong and stable. FIIs and Mutual fund hold around 2.9% and 6.4% in the company. Cash and cash equivalent from operating activities as of March 2020 is around INR 318.9 Cr Vs. 123.4 Cr as of March 2019. 

Position: Share strong support price is INR 650. Long term investor can continue with the company. 

Share View: 
Share price high 830 (52 week) and now 756. Relaxo was founded in 1976 and is today the largest manufacturer of footwear in India. It has 9 famous brands Relaxo, Bahamas, Casuals, Schoolmate, Kidsfun, Flite, Sparx, Boston and Mary Jane. 

Opportunities: Relaxo has a strategy of mass appeal providing Value for money products. India’s share in global exports of footwear is just 2% as compared to China’s share of 40%. The government is considering proposals for investment of $16-17 billion (around Rs 1.25 lakh crore) to boost domestic production of air conditioners and its components, furniture and **leather footwear** recent announcement, while looking at options, including duty hikes, to reduce import dependence and push exports.  Further investment of over $1 billion has been proposed to scale up the leather footwear business to attract global investors and improve the quality and branding exercise so that Indian exports, which have a meagre 3.5% share, can compete with rivals from China, Vietnam and Indonesia. Relaxo with strong brand has capability to scale up its operations and export revenue can surplus and improve the topline and bottomline in near future.

Risk: Despite lockdown started in end of March 2020 revenue has declined by 15% in YoY. Q1FY21 can be more challenging due to lower sale on account of lockdown extended in April and May as well. Expensive valuation as compare to their nearest rival Bata and other footwear brands. 

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Divi’s Lab - Q4 FY20 Result

Divi’s Lab - Q4 FY20

Divi’s Lab - Q4 FY20

CMP: 2,460
Total revenue from operations 1,389 Cr 
1,267 Cr (9.65%)  YoY | 1,396 Cr (-0.50%)  QoQ 
Year ending revenue: 5,394 Cr Vs. 4,946 Cr (9.04%)

Net Profit of 388.2 Cr 
291.9 Cr (32.92%) YoY 359.09 Cr (8.09%) QoQ 
Year ending Net profit: 1,376 Cr Vs. 1,352 Cr (1.71%)

EPS (in Rs.) 14.62
11.00 YoY | 13.53 QoQ 
Year ending EPS: 51.85 Vs. 50.96

View: Result is line with the expectation. YoY revenue increased and profit also increased. Profit also contributed more than 12% on account of other income as well, other income recorded INR 76.7 Cr in Q42020 Vs. 40.8 Cr in corresponding previous quarter.  

Business Updates & Highlights

Q4FY20 EBITDA is around INR 522 Cr Vs. 457.1 Cr in FY19 Vs. 535.5 Cr in Q3FY20 therefore up by 14% in YoY and declined by 2.4% in QoQ.  EBITDA margin in Q4FY20 is 37.5% Vs. 36.1% in Q4FY19 Vs. 38.3% in QoQ.

FY20 EBITDA is INR 2,011 Cr Vs. 2,027 Cr in FY19 therefore slightly declined by 0.8% in YoY.  EBITDA margin is 37.2% Vs. 40.9% in YoY.

Forex Gain is around INR 57 Cr during the Q4FY20 Vs. losses on 7 Cr in Q4FY19. FY20 forex gain is around INR 82 Cr vs. 31 Cr in FY19.

The company availed tax incentives for new projects set up in backward districts of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. There was also a reversal of current tax of earlier years amounting to nearly Rs.33.70 crores. These have been reflected in the accounts for the current quarter.

It was reported in the previous financial year that the Company would be taking up two brownfield projects with an aggregate investment of "1200 crores. During the year, capitalized assets of INR 876 crores for the new projects as well as for expansion at the existing facilities; and an amount of INR 920 crores is carried forward as Capital Work-in-Progress at the end of the year. 

There has been some delay in implementing the large capex projects taken by the Company due to torrential rains and COVID-19 which impacted movement of people and goods.

The Board of Directors of the Company has declared and paid an interim dividend of INR 16 per share for the financial year 2019-20. No final dividend is recommended

Financial
ROE and ROCE is around INR 21% and 29% respectively and book value per share is around INR 266 and share is currently trading at 9.7x of its book value. Company is currently trading at annualized PE of around 48 which is high as per industry benchmark. Promoter holding is around 51.9% in the company which is good and stable. FIIs and mutual fund hold around 19.1% and 14.7% in the company. Cash and cash equivalent from operating activities as of March 2020 is around INR 1,215 Cr Vs. 954 Cr as of March 2019. The good thing is company has very small debt and continuously reduced their debt. 

Position: Share strong support price is INR 2,350/2270. Long term investor can continue with the company.

Share View
Share price high 2,537 (52 week) and now 2,460. Divi’s is the leading manufacturer of APIs(Active pharmaceuticals ingredients), Intermediates and Registered starting materials offering high quality products with the highest level of compliance and integrity to over 95 countries.

Opportunities: 
Divi’s recently reached the milestone of being one among the top 3 API manufacturers in the world and one among the top API companies in Hyderabad. The API business is a rare pool of profitability. Margins remain attractive even in the most commoditised categories, because supply is much more concentrated in APIs, and suppliers have achieved greater scale by operating globally rather than regionally. The company bet on the high-margin chemicals that go into making medicines has more than paid off. And while Indian drugmakers struggle in the U.S., their largest market, as competition squeezed prices and margins, Divi’s Labs has seen its revenue, profit and margins improve in the last two years and clocked its best ever sales in the quarter ended Sep 2019. 

Risk:
The stock is the costliest among index members, it trades at 30 times of its estimated earnings for 2020-21. That’s about 40% premium over generics-making peers, including Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd., Cipla Ltd., Lupin Ltd. and Dr. Reddy’s etc. Currency, however, continues to be a key variable as exports contribute 87% of the Divi’s sales. Depreciation of the dollar and the euro against the rupee could pose a risk to financials. Besides, brokerages also cite any U.S. FDA action and dependence on select clients and products as other key risks.


Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Monday, June 8, 2020

Motherson Sumi Q4 Results

Motherson Sumi Q4 Results

Motherson Sumi Q4 Results

Motherson Sumi - Q4 FY20 (Audited –Cons) 
CMP: 101 
  
Total revenue from operations 15,159 Cr  
17,169 Cr (-11.71%)  YoY | 15,661 Cr (-3.22%)  QoQ  
  
Year ending revenue: 63,536 Cr Vs. 63,522 Cr (0.02%) 

Net Profit of 135.6 Cr  
429.3 Cr (-68.58%) YoY 340.3 Cr (-60.43%) QoQ  
  
Year ending Net profit: 1,294.4 Cr Vs. 2,098.1 Cr (-41.11%) 

EPS (in Rs.) 0.58 
1.30 YoY | 0.86 QoQ  
  
Year ending EPS: 3.71 Vs. 5.11 
View: Result is above expectation. Although YoY revenue and profit both have declined but EBITDA and margin improved in this quarter.  
Business Updates & Highlights: 
Q4FY20 EBITDA is around INR 1,355 Cr Vs. 1,270 Cr in Q4FY19 therefore up by 7% in YoY and FY20 EBITDA is around INR 5,252 Cr Vs. 5,397 Cr in FY19 therefore down by marginally at 2.7%.  

Q4FY20 EBITDA margin is around 9.1% Vs. 7.5% in Q4FY19. FY20 EBITDA margin is around 8.4% Vs. 8.6% in FY19. 
Robust Order Book of Rs. 107,122 crores (Euro 13.6 billion) at SMRP BV level; New orders worth Rs. 43,321 crores. (Euro 5.5 billion) won during the year, while orders worth Rs. 79,554 crores (Euro 10.1 billion) went into execution. 

Q4FY20 Export turnover is around INR 13,208 Cr Vs. 15,082 Cr in Q4FY19 declined by 12% in YoY. FY20 export turnover is around INR 55,945 Cr Vs. 55,144 Cr in FY19 therefore up by 1.4%.  

Financial 

ROE and ROCE is around 15% and 17% respectively and book value per share is around INR 32 and share is currently trading at 3.1x of its book value. Company is currently trading at annualized PE of around 28 which is high as per industry benchmark. Promoter holding is around 61.7% in the company which is strong and stable and promoter has pledged around 2,453 Cr worth of shares. FIIs, Mutual fund hold hold around 15.5% and 11.2% in the company. Cash and cash equivalent from operating activities as of March 2020 is around INR 6,352 Cr Vs. 4,312 Cr as of March 2019. Debt as of March 2020 is around INR 11,790 Cr Vs. 11,534 Cr as of March, 2019.    

Position: Share strong support price is INR 80. Long term investor should continue with the company based on their risk appetite.  

Share View: Share price high 151 (52 week) and now 101 within 2 month company share price recovered from low 48 to 101. Motherson Sumi Systems Limited (MSSL) is one of the world’s leading specialized automotive component manufacturing companies for OEMs. MSSL was established in 1986 as a joint venture with Sumitomo Wiring Systems and was listed in 1993 on BSE and NSE in India. The company has a presence in 41 countries across five continents. MSSL is currently the largest auto ancillary in India and among the Fab 50 companies of India by Forbes magazine. MSSL is the flagship company of the Motherson Group, ranked 21st among global automotive suppliers by Automotive News. 
Opportunities: Share is currently at beaten down value. Despite automobile sector sluggish growth and lockdown happened in last week of March company has managed its topline and bottom line growth and also improved the EBITDA margin. Robust order book.  
Risk: Automobile sector sluggish growth for past 2-3 years impact the direct business of motherson sumi especially coronavirus pandemic was already impacting China and parts of Europe. Export which is around 88% of their business  continuously declined.  
Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Saturday, June 6, 2020

Vedanta Q4 Results

Vedanta Q4 Results



CMP: 105
Total income from operations 20,382 Cr 
25,096 Cr (-18.76%)  YoY | 22,007 Cr (-7.32%) QoQ 
Year ending revenue: 86,965 Cr Vs. 96,066 Cr (-9.41%)

Net Profit of (15,269) Cr 
4,104 Cr (-472.07%) YoY 3,806 Cr (-501.23%) QoQ 
Year ending Net profit: (8,259) Cr Vs. 13,560 Cr (-160.91%)

EPS (in Rs.) (33.82)
7.04 YoY | 6.31 QoQ 
Year ending EPS: (18.00) Vs. 18.98

View: Result is below expectation and declind. YoY and QoQ revenue declined and company posted huge losses due to booked exceptional loss in the tune of INR 17,132 Cr on account of impairment losses for Oil & Gas, Copper and Iron Ore business triggered majorly due to significant fall in crude oil prices. 

**Business Updates & Highlights**:

Q4FY20 EBITDA is around INR 4,844 Cr Vs. 6,330 Cr in Q4FY19 Vs. 6,530 Cr in Q3FY20 therefore declined by 23% in YoY and declined by 34% in QoQ. FY20 EBITDA is around INR 21,060 Cr Vs. 24,012 Cr in FY19 therefore declined by at 12%. 

Q4FY20 EBITDA margin is around 28% Vs. 31% in Q4FY19 Vs. 34% in Q3FY20. FY20 EBITDA margin is around 29% Vs. 30% in FY19.

Revenue for Q4 FY2020 was at ₹ 19,513 crore, lower by 8% sequentially, primarily due to lower commodity prices further impacted by COVID-19, lower volume at Aluminium business and lower power sales at TSPL.

**Key business updates in Q4FY20**:

Zinc India: MIC production up 6% q-o-q. Metal Production up 1% q-o-q. 

Zinc International: Overall Production down 5% q-o-q. Gamsberg production at 30kt.

Oil & Gas: Gross Production at 162 kboepd.

Aluminium: Aluminium Cost down 14% q-o-q. Lanjigarh cost down 4% q-o-q.

Electrosteel Steels: Production marginally up 1% q-o-q. Margin up 132% q-o-q.

Iron Ore: IOK Sales at 1.6 Mt up 8% q-o-q. Pig Iron Production down 17% q-o-q.

**Delisting Notice**

On May 12, 2020, the Promoter expressed its intention to voluntarily delist the Equity Shares in accordance with Delisting Regulations and highlighted an Indicative Offer Price of INR 87.5 per Equity Share (determined in accordance with the Delisting Regulations). On May 18, 2020, the board of directors of Company approved the proposal and authorised the Company, amongst other things, to seek shareholders’ approval with respect to the proposal.

**Board of Directors has declared Interim dividend for the F.Y. 2019-20 of Re 1.25 per equity share and paid in March 2020 which is final dividend for FY19-20

**Financial**

ROE and ROCE is around 15% and 11% respectively and book value per share is around INR 168 and share is currently trading at 0.6x of its book value. Promoter holding is around 50.1% in the company which is good and stable. FIIs and Mutual fund hold around 15.1% and 10.9% in the company. Cash and cash equivalent from operating activities as of March 2020 is around INR 19,298 Cr Vs. 23,754 Cr as of March 2019. Net debt / EBITDA is around 1x as of March 2020 as compare to 1.1 in March 2019. Net Debt at INR 21,273 crores, decreased by INR 5,683 crores compared to 31st March 2019

Position: Share strong support price is INR 84/72. Long term investor based on their risk appetite can continue with the company

Share View : Share price high 180 (52 week) and now 105. Vedanta Limited is a mining company based in India, with its main operations in iron ore, gold and Aluminium mines in Goa, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Odisha

Opportunities: Vedanta consolidated has great set of asset its including subsidiaries which has huge asset base namely Hindustan Zinc (Price: INR 180, dividend: INR 16.5), Electrosteel steel, Bharat aluminium, Sesa Goa, Bellary Steel, Sterlite Ports etc. 

Risk: Posted huge losses in the tune of INR 17K Cr due to impairment of losses of Oil & Gas business mainly for huge crude fall. Highly volatile current environment can further correct the Q1 and Q2 as well. 

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Era of Corona : Early signs of improvement

Era of Corona : Early Signs of Improvement


The previous few weeks saw a significant rise in the volatility in bond yields and a few debt fund categories, especially credit risk funds. Apprehensions of credit downgrades due to lockdown had resulted in widening credit spreads. Further, the decision of a large mutual fund house to wind down some of its debt schemes had resulted in accelerated redemptions in credit space.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in response, has been very proactive in response to the crisis. It has already announced measures worth Rs. 6.24 lakh crore, which amount the approximately 3.1% of GDP. However, due to this heightened risk perception, banks have not been keen on subscribing to some of the facilities which involved investing in lower rated papers or those issued by Non-Banking Financial Institutions (NBFCs), Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) and Micro-Finance Institutions (MFIs) (such as TLTRO 2.0).

Therefore, the Government announced a Rs. 30,000 crore special liquidity scheme for NBFCs/ HFCs/ MFIs, under which investments made in both the primary and secondary markets will be fully guaranteed by the Government. It also announced a Rs. 45,000 Partial Credit Guarantee Scheme 2.0 (PCGS 2.0). Under this scheme, the existing PCGS has been extended to cover primary issuances of bonds by NBFCs/ HFCs/ MFIs rated AA and below, including unrated papers. These measures are expected to increase liquidity in the markets for NBFCs/ HFCs/ MFIs, and also encourage further participation of banks in Targeted Long Term Repo Operations 2.0 (TLTRO 2.0) announced for these entities.

All these measures, in addition to several other measures that the Central Government continues to announce (such as the 100% government guarantee for new loans extended to MSMEs worth Rs. 3 lakh crore) have begun to show early signs of improvement. The dust has begun to settle, and this can be felt by observing market yields. Yields on savings products like bank/AAA corporate FDs have fallen, and so have the yields and spreads of corporate bonds. For example, AA 3 year yields have fallen by approximately 0.57% since March 31, 2020. Additionally, redemptions from credit risk funds have moderated significantly.


As both the Central Government and the RBI have announced measures with a strong sense of urgency and purpose, yields spreads may start compressing in the coming weeks as liquidity issues in the debt markets begin to clear out. Therefore, this presents a good opportunity to invest in debt markets.

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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