Wednesday, December 18, 2019

How to do Investment based on your Financial Goals?

How to do Investment based on your Financial Goals?

As investors you are often told that investments are done with the aim of fulfilling personal financial goals. This is often said with the assumption that you have a financial goal or goals to fulfill. The idea of having personal goals is not just about a list of goals you want to fulfill. It is because having goals serve as personal motivation to continue the investments, ending in financial fulfillment of the goal. However, financial goals are more than just a list of goals. Goals
should be accompanied by a time period within which the investor seeks its fulfillment. The time period is crucial because it determines the amount to be invested and allows an investor to determine whether the goal is a long term, mid term or short term goal. Let us take a look at some of the widely considered important personal goals that investors often invest for.

Staying Ahead of Inflation

Inflation slowly eats in to your investments making your accumulated amount look small compared to your needs. This is the most important of all financial goals because this goal dictates that your investments must generate inflation adjusted returns. It also ensures that an investor reflects upon the present and future cost of the goals. You must have heard your parents talk about the ‘good
old days’ where they described how easily they could get things for 50 paise. Presently, we all are witnessing the absence of those 50 paise coins. This is because of the inflation what your parents could purchase for 50 paise we can purchase it for no less than Rs. 50. The same applies to your goals. The amount that is enough for your household presently will not be enough 10 years down
the line. Inflation affects the prices in the economy pushing it upwards with every passing year. Staying up with inflation could be an exasperating task in the present but it definitely is rewarding in the future. Let us see some possible future costs.













Retirement Goals

Retirement goals are one of the most important long term goals and also the most ignored goal for most investors in India. Retirement goal is the last in the last of personal goal, hence, it is ignored because of the long time horizon that exists between its investment and fulfillment. However, investors fail to take note of one factor and that is mostly all investments can be fulfilled by adjusting your monthly income or by borrowing from your future income in terms of a loan. However, no such provision is allowed for retirement because at this phase you cease to have a regular income. Hence, you will have to sustain with whatever exists in your corpus or find alternative means of income. So ignore the goal of retirement at your own peril. The sooner you start, you will have time by your side and you will be able to make the most of out of small pockets
of investment. The magic of time of value of money is such that if you invest small sums for a long period of time you are bound to have more than lump sums invested for a short period of time. This is simply called the time value of money and possible because of the power of compounding.










Lifestyle Goals

Lifestyle goals are those goals for which we do not plan for, for example eating out with your family in restaurants or a weekend trip to the countryside resort or buying a big car or a foreign holiday. These are often unplanned for and you pay for them with your present funds or your monthly income. Then they are forgotten till another expense comes up. Lifestyle is one of those aspects that often put even the richest in debt because there is no end to what you can aspire for to satisfy your materialistic needs. These goals are often the reason we have piling credit bills and pay interest as high as 36% to 48% per annum and a major reason why we are also unable to save or invest to build a financial future. Hence, beginning of every year, it would be advisable to have a budget for these expenses and try not to exceed those. Have a lifestyle plan like you plan your retirement and start investing a stipulated sum. If you are prone to using credit cards, then remember to pay the bill amount within the given date to avoid late charges, fines or hefty interest. Remember, the aim is to build a sound financial future and not live in an inflated bubble of credit.

Education Goals

Your personal goals have to incorporate the education goals of your children beginning from the rising private school expenses to the college and professional course fees. You need to start thinking even earlier if you wish to send your child out to get a foreign education. There are certain ways in which today’s children are different from what you were when you were a child. You probably did not grow up viewing laptop, gaming console and tablets as a necessity. However, the fortunate or unfortunate truth is your child will view these as necessities. Hence, if you wish you provide these gadgets which are in no way inexpensive, maybe you need to include these in your planning as well. Compared to the goals you are planning for these may look insignificant but a
little planning can always take a long way. You can invest an amount as small as Rs. 500 in SIPs for a short period of three to five years ensuring your entire child’s miscellaneous needs are met.

Medical and Life Goals

We live in an increasingly complex world. If there is one thing we do not account for, it is our health. While we may take excellent care of it we could still find ourselves surrounded by medical bills and prescriptions. We live in an increasingly stressful world and taking chances with one’s health is not an option. Hence, your personal goals should include a medical insurance along with life insurance. Select a term plan which you can afford and give yourself a cover for at least till 70-75 years. Get the adequate medical insurance so that best care does not remain un affordable to you. You can always increase the insurance cover once your income increases or you grow older for better protection.

Emergency Expenses Goals

This is one of the most ignored goals because one might complain that after spending, and investing there are simply no funds left. However, it is better to have an emergency fund that you might need during extenuating circumstances that looking for money to borrow during pressing situations. Family emergencies, health emergencies, urgent fund needs, we could be bogged down by possibly everything. Investments which you are planning to redeem will interfere with your personal goals and it could take a while for the money to come to your account as well. Hence, have an emergency fund and put small sums of money. Invest that in liquid mutual funds where you could redeem anytime by earning returns and paying no exit loads. This will allow your emergency fund to gather some returns and be well within your reach.

Financial Planning is no child’s play and requires your utmost attention. Hence, have a list of goals and do not invest without any purpose in mind because that will not motivate you enough to stay invested. Personal goals could definitely vary from what has been written as it is largely based on an individual’s needs. Hence, talk to your financial advisor regarding all your various financial goals and how you could possibly channelize your income to fulfill them and lead a good life. Remember no matter how big or small your goals are you have enough. Just have faith, plan, keep investing and remain invested till goals are achieved.

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Financial Planning || Equity Tip || Demat Account || Mutual Fund Investment || Life Insurance || General & Health Insurance || PMS & mini PMS || Retirement Planning

Advantages Of Investing In Equity Mutual Funds

*Advantages Of Investing In Equity Mutual Funds*

Before we talk about the advantages of equity Mutual Funds (MF), let us talk a little about why to invest in the first place. Investments are important as they help you to work towards your financial security, financial independence and also attain your goals. Equity MFs can work as a very important asset class while building up your investment portfolio. They not only offer higher returns, but diversify your portfolio at the same time.

Equity MFs are primarily a type of fund that invest the pooled money from investors into stocks of various companies. It is the gains or losses arising from the rise or fall in prices of these stocks which decide the performance of this fund. Investing in equity market requires adequate knowledge, risk-taking ability and patience, if you have to make an effective investment portfolio. Let us discuss the benefits of investing in equity mutual funds.

Professionally managed

One of the biggest benefits of investing in such kind of mutual fund is that they are professionally managed. The fund managers managing these funds have ample experience in studying these stocks, they have access to the management of the companies wherein they can ask about their queries and are able to study ins and outs of the company’s business. Such kind of information is generally not available to a retail investor. As a result, investors get to use the knowledge and capabilities of fund managers who make it their business to find out the intricacies of the working of the stocks that they invest in.

Capital appreciation

Equity investment tends to generate great returns in the long run. So, when a person invests in an equity mutual fund, he not only gets capital appreciation (if he ties himself to the fund for long term) but also gets the benefit of economies of scale as a large pool of investments is parked in various stocks, which means you get to participate in investing in so many more companies than you could have done individually.

Easy liquidity

One of the chief benefits of investing in the stock market is investors can buy and sell stocks as per the need. Investment in equity mutual fund provides the facility of easy liquidity, for instance, in open-ended equity mutual fund schemes one can redeem the investments at any time, whenever there is a need of the money. It takes around a weeks’ time for the whole process to be completed, in case of the matured SIP; an investor can get the cash in three to four working days.

Well regulated

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) regulate all mutual funds. Both these statutory government bodies ensure safe and healthy investment practices. They mandate a certain level of transparency in the disclosures. All funds disclose their month-end portfolios on their website besides daily NAVs (Net Asset Value) and periodic expense ratios as mandated by SEBI. There are many independent research houses which track this information and provide the performance along with portfolio analysis of mutual funds to help investors and distributors so they can make informed investment decisions.

Different goals

There are so many types of equity mutual fund schemes available to match different kind of investment goals. There is no upper limit to your investment in mutual funds and you can start from as low as Rs 500. Based on your risk-taking capacity and the urgency of your goals there are so many different types of schemes available to invest in for example: if you are a high-risk taking investor and are looking for higher returns on your investments you have options like investing in mid-cap or low-cap funds which basically invest in small growing companies or you have an option to invest in sector funds which invest in companies from one sector itself like Real Estate, FMCG or Pharma.

Tax-free returns

The returns in equity mutual funds are taxed at 15 % (Short Term Capital Gain) and become tax-free when investments in these funds go beyond a holding period of 12 months up to Rs 100000. In case, if redeemed within a short period, the actual returns become negative. It is always suggested to invest for a long time to earn high compounded returns and also to get all the money tax-free once redeemed.

Portfolio diversification

Investing in the equity mutual fund gets spread into considerable number of stocks minimizing the risk of losses in future, in short it helps diversifying your portfolio. So, if some stock under performs at the exchange, the outperforming ones can make up for the damages hence reducing the overall loss occurred and the market risk in the overall portfolio. These mutual funds help you to have a small amount of so many stocks from various companies in your portfolio even if you are starting a monthly SIP of Rs 500; thus, balancing your investments overall.

With increased awareness of the benefits of the equity mutual funds, this sector has seen huge growth over the last couple of years. The advent of technology has played a vital role in escalating the demand for equity mutual funds as well. Mobile technology and the internet have made the task easy and hassle-free as it just takes 10-minute to get started in investing in mutual funds. Mutual funds are easy to invest in and are offered by brokerage firms, online platforms, banks and now mobile apps. The cost of investing in mutual funds is also very low as compared to investing directly in equities due to economies of scale in transactions and lower management costs. Equity Mutual Funds are best suited for an investor with a moderate to high risk appetite.

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Infyture, Investment For Your Future
Contact: +91-7990271953 // 8347871052

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Monday, December 16, 2019

Market Flash on 16th December 2019

Market Flash on 16th December 2019.

Benchmark indices have turned flat after making a higher opening. Earlier, the Sensex and Bank Nifty had clocked fresh life-time highs, buoyed by the progress in the US-China trade talks and on the Brexit front. The S&P BSE Sensex clocked the life-time high of 41,185 in the opening deals.

At 10:25 AM, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 41,002, down 7 points or 0.02%. Market breadth are positive and out of a total of 1,817 shares traded on the Bombay Stock Exchange, 908 advanced while 777 declined and 132 remained unchanged. The Nifty50 was down 7 points or 0.02% at 12,081. 10-year Indian G-Sec yields were trading at 6.782 in morning against the previous close of 6.782.

The Week That Was

Markets ended with major gains during the week on positive global cues. Optimism over US-China deal and hopes of a swift Brexit after thumping election win by Britain's Conservative Party boosted sentiment.

Both, Sensex and Nifty ended above their psychological 41,000-mark and 12,000-mark, respectively. In the week ended on Friday, December 13, 2019, the Sensex rose 564.56 points or 1.40% to settle at 41,009.71. The Nifty 50 index advanced 165.20 points or 1.39% to settle at 12,086.70.














Global Markets

Asian shares moved higher today as investors welcomed a trade agreement between Beijing and Washington over the weekend, but enthusiasm was capped by lingering scepticism about the deal and ongoing relations between China and the United States. 

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Sunday said a deal was “totally done”, not withstanding some needed revisions, and would nearly double U.S. exports to China over the next two years.

That helped push the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, which had touched its highest level since April 24 on Friday, up 0.27%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 led the way as it jumped 1.24%, while shares in Taiwan and South Korea added about 0.1%.

But Chinese investors had a more tepid reaction, pulling the benchmark Shanghai Composite index down 0.16% as investors took profits following a 1.8% gain on Friday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 also succumbed to profit-taking, easing 0.14% after surging 2.55% to a 14-month closing high on Friday.















Indian Rupee

Indian rupee was trading little changed against the US dollar on Monday amid mixed cues from Asian currencies. At 10.10 am, rupee was trading at 70.80 a dollar, up 0.01% from Friday's close of 70.82.

Crude Oil

Oil prices fell but remained near three-month highs on Monday after the United States and China agreed to an initial trade deal, a move market participants said could stoke oil demand and boost trade flows.

Brent crude oil futures fell 23 cents, or 0.4% to $64.99 a barrel, after closing at a near three-month high on Friday. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 23 cents or 0.4% to $59.84 a barrel.

Week Ahead

Global cues, macroeconomic data, movement of rupee against the dollar, Brent crude oil price movement and investments by foreign portfolio investors (FPI) and domestic institutional investors (DII) will be watched in the week ahead.

On the macro front, the WPI Inflation (YoY) for November 2019 will be unveiled today. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will on Thursday, December 19, 2019 announce the minutes of its monetary policy review meeting held on 5 December 2019.

The 38th GST Council meeting is reportedly scheduled on December 18, 2019. The goods and services tax (GST) rates and slabs may be raised during the GST Council meeting this week.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will reportedly address the annual general meeting of the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham) on 20 December 2019.

On the global front, China's industrial production data for November 2019 will be unveiled today. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday. The US GDP Growth Rate QoQ final estimate Q3 will be announced on Friday.

The US Market Manufacturing PMI for December 2019 will be announced today. In Europe, the Euro Area Markit Manufacturing PMI for December 2019 will also be announced today.














Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Infyture, Investment For Your Future
+91-7990271953 // 8347871052
infyture@gmail.com
infyture.blogspot.com

Financial Planning || Equity Tip || Demat Account || Mutual Fund Investment || Life Insurance || General & Health Insurance || PMS & mini PMS || Retirement Planning

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

What is Indexation ?

What is Indexation ?

In today’s scenario of lower interest rates resulting in lower YTMs (Yield to Maturity) of debt and liquid mutual funds, it is imperative for an investor to focus on real returns (inflation-adjusted) on a post-tax basis. On one hand, a sustained low inflation is making even lower returns attractive on a real basis, and on the other, the investor can also reduce the impact of taxation by making use of the indexation benefit.

Definition
Indexation is a technique to adjust income payments by means of a price index, in order to maintain the purchasing power of the public after inflation, while deindexation is the unwinding of indexation.

What Is Indexation? 
A long term debt investments (of at least 3 years), qualifies for indexation benefit in the calculation of long term capital gains under Income Tax Act, 1961. Indexation is nothing but the increase in the cost of acquisition of the asset. This increase is based on a “Cost Inflation Index (CII)” which is updated every year based on inflation. Therefore, for a holding period covering 4 financial years, the cost of acquisition of the debt mutual fund units are multiplied by the CII of the year of sale and divided by the CII of the year of purchase – thereby increasing its value by 3 indexations. 

Index Cost of Acquisition = 
Cost of acquisition x CII of year of sale/CII of year of purchase

What is 4-indexation benefit? 
Interestingly, it is also possible to earn the benefit of 4 indexations by increasing the holding period of 3 years just by a few months. For example, an investment made in January, 2020 and redeemed in April, 2023 covers 5 financial years, i.e., FY 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, and also FY 2023-24 as the investment is sold in April, 2023. Therefore, the investor earns the benefit of 4 indexations by investing only for 3 years and 3 months, provided his holding period is such that it covers 5 financial years.

Explained in the below table is the difference in post-tax returns of investments in debt mutual funds Vs term deposits made on 1st Jan 2020 and redeemed on 1st April 2023, assuming a CAGR of 6.5% for both:


Therefore, the additional indexation benefit can positively impact our return in a significant manner. This presents investors the opportunity to enter the debt markets over the next three months till the end of the current financial year with a holding period running over 1st April 2023.

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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Infyture, Investment For Your Future
+91-7990271953 // 8347871052
infyture@gmail.com
infyture.blogspot.com

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Friday, December 6, 2019

RBI Policy 05 December 2019

RBI Policy 05 December 2019

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)  unanimously voted in favour of keeping the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.15%. Further, it also voted in favour of maintaining an accommodative stance. The reverse repo rate and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) remains unchanged at 4.90% and 4.0% respectively.

RBI revised its inflation forecast upward with new projected inflation for H2FY20 being 4.7 – 5.1% and H1FY21 at 3.8-4.0% as against forecast of 3.5%-3.7% and 3.6% in H2FY20 and Q1FY21 respectively in October policy. The key reason for large revision was primarily because of sharp rise in the vegetable prices on account of supply disruption due to unseasonal rainfall. Further, strengthening in prices of items like milk, pulses etc. along with rise in inflation expectations of households also led to projections being revised upward. However, RBI noted that government measures to improve supply through imports are likely to soften the vegetable prices by Q4FY20. Moreover, soft core inflation (CPI ex food & fuel) is likely to remain weak given the favourable base effect and slowing domestic demand. RBI expects CPI is likely to tread below 4% target by Q2 FY21.

RBI revised down its growth outlook substantially for FY20 to 5.0% from 6.1% estimated in October meeting (Aug19 estimates: 6.9%). GDP growth forecast was revised to 4.9-5.5% for H2 FY20 and 5.9-6.3% for H1 FY21 (as against earlier estimates of 5.3% for Q2 FY20, 6.6%-7.2% for H2FY20 and 7.2% in Q1FY21). RBI noted that domestic economic activity has deteriorated further and output gap remains negative as reflected in lower capacity utilization. Seasonally adjusted capacity utilisation worsened meaningfully to 69.8% in Q2FY20 from 74.6% in Q1FY20 and is expected to remain muted in Q3FY20 as per Industrial outlook survey. Slowdown has been broad based with both manufacturing and services activity indicators showing signs of weakness. Manufacturing remains particularly weak with industrial production contracting and overall sentiments being negative.

In spite of sharp revision in growth forecast for FY20, RBI decided to maintain the rate in view of the recent uptick in inflation. However, it mentioned that there is still some monetary space for future rate cuts. RBI will continue to monitor incoming data for more clarity on inflation outlook and also impact of government actions on growth and inflation. RBI deemed that high small savings rate and clarity on government budget as important parameters for rate transmission and future rate action.


Conclusion and Outlook


The MPC’s decision to maintain the policy rate was against the consensus expectations of 25 bps rate cut. RBI’s maintaining “an accommodative stance as long as it is necessary to revive growth, while ensuring that inflation remains within the target” was in line with expectations.

Since Feb 2019, RBI has reduced the policy rate by 135 bps in aggregate, though the transmission has been muted in bank lending rates. Given that RBI is expecting inflation to be below target only after 6 months and possibility of growth bottoming, any future rate action by RBI is likely to be data dependent.

Gsec yields rose by around 15 bps on unanticipated pause by RBI and dampening of hope of more rate cuts in near term. With regard to yields at the longer end, as we have been highlighting, opposing forces are at play. Easing stance of major global central banks, ample interbanking liquidity, steepness of yield curve and weak credit growth favour lower yields. On the other hand, risk of fiscal slippage, excess SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio) investments within banking system, high near term headline inflation, possible bottoming out of growth, etc. are likely to impact yields adversely. In view of the above, yields at the longer end of the curve are likely to trade within a range.

Considering the aforesaid factors, in our assessment, the short to medium end of the yield curve offers better risk adjusted returns. Hence, we continue to recommend investment in short to medium duration debt funds.

Sources: Various publications

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is based on publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable, but involve uncertainties that could cause actual events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The document is given for general and information purpose and is neither an investment advice nor an offer to sell nor a solicitation. While due care has been exercised while preparing this document, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information. We will not accept any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

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"Your Trust, Our Financial Expertise."


Infyture, Investment For Your Future
+91-7990271953 // 8347871052
infyture@gmail.com
infyture.blogspot.com

Financial Planning || Equity Tip || Demat Account || Mutual Fund Investment || Life Insurance || General & Health Insurance || PMS & mini PMS || Retirement Planning

Market Overview for December 2019


Market Overview for December 2019

Even as we have stayed positive on Indian markets over the past few months, we have repeatedly highlighted stress in the financial sector as the key risk for markets as well as the real economy. And on that front, recent developments provide some glimmer of hope. First, the Supreme court ruling in the Essar Steel case upheld the primacy of secured financial creditors over unsecured financial and operational creditors on distribution of proceeds. This should go a long way in expediting the resolution of stressed assets under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy code (IBC). Further, the government notified rules under section 227 of the IBC providing for insolvency proceedings of financial institutions which so far were outside the purview of the process. The RBI acted swiftly subsequently and superseded a stressed NBFC’s board. This should pave way for orderly resolution of stressed entities in the NBFC space.

The government announcement of a Rs 25,000 cr fund for stalled real estate projects is a good move. Stress in the telecom sector seems to have peaked with the government giving comfort to all incumbents and following it up by deferring spectrum payments for FY21 and FY22. At the same time, all three private players in the sector announced the intent to hike tariffs thus raising prospects of improved financial health going forward. Resolution of promoter leverage at one of the larger media groups is another unrelated development but in the same direction. Overall, while the recent moves are in the right direction, a lot more needs to be done to rebuild confidence. The recent equity market up move is partly hinged on expectations of continuing policy support and in part driven by global factors.

The global macro environment has turned for the better. While economic data isn’t deteriorating further, policy response stays more than accommodating thus leading to a happy situation for financial markets. Majority of central banks have resorted to monetary accommodation following a period of weak growth. The US Fed has not just stopped quantitative tightening but has in fact been expanding its balance sheet for the past three months. Fiscal policy is coming to aid too with the European Union as well as most Emerging Economies running expansionary budgets. Fiscal policy will play an even bigger role going ahead and complement effort on the monetary policy front, in our view- this a point we had discussed in detail last month.

Consequently, financial markets appear to now price in a global reflation. The US yield curve which was inverted till August-end is steep again thus allaying concerns of an impending recession. The amount of negative yielding debt which had peaked at US$17 trillion in August-end has since receded to about US$12.3 trillion as at November end. While safe havens such as Gold and US Dollar have gone sideways, risk assets such as emerging market equities and commodities are inching higher. Amidst this global backdrop, India is witnessing strong FDI and FPI inflows. A global reflation should further help the real economy through trade and export linkages.

Therefore, even as near-term growth continues to be weak, and the most recent GDP print of 4.5% for 2QFY20 is dismal to say the least, environment appears to be turning conducive for the economy to pick up at the margin. In this context, the much discussed disconnect between the state of the economy today and the stock market performance while not misplaced, should not be too worrying given markets in general tend to be forward looking. In fact, when the broader markets had peaked in Jan-2018, the economic prints were still running strong. Yet liquidity was getting tighter, both locally and globally, what with the US Fed having begun quantitative tightening in late 2017. This eventually started manifesting in weak economic growth numbers at least a couple of quarters later.

The other worry for investors is on headline index valuations with the price to earnings ratio of the Nifty on trailing earnings at dizzying highs. However, one needs to factor in that current earnings may not be the correct representation of corporate performance from a longer-term standpoint given that corporate profitability is severely depressed currently. Corporate profits as a proportion of GDP has dipped closer to 2% from a peak of over 7% in FY08 based on a sample of 20,000 listed and unlisted companies. The nominal GDP growth itself is running in single digits now versus mid-teens in the FY06-FY08 period. As a result, Sensex earnings have grown at an abysmal 5.4% CAGR over FY08-FY19 versus 14.8% from FY92 to FY08. Any reversion in economic growth and profits to GDP ratio would lead to a significant uptick in earnings.

An analysis of corporate India’s earnings recession suggests that over the past decade employee costs and other expenses as proportion of sales have risen, while the benefit of fall in raw materials hasn’t fully reflected in margins. While this can be thought of as negative operating leverage, interest burden and tax burden have risen too. Going forward, lower tax burden (due to recent tax cuts) and lower interest rates should directly aid profitability. In addition, better rate transmission, on the back of ample liquidity and improved confidence amongst financial sector participants, should lead to an aggregate demand uptick which will boost top lines, as well as margins through positive operating leverage.

Additionally, some sectors that had been contributing to large pools of losses appear to be on the mend now, corporate banks and telecom being the largest two. The worst appears to be over for corporate banks on recognition as well as provision for stressed assets. Resolution may improve on the back of recent developments on the IBC front- SC judgment upholding seniority of secured financial creditors and inclusion of NBFCs under IBC. Normalization in credit costs can swing large losses to significant profits possibly. Telecom is another large sector that has been in the red given regulatory and competitive pressures. However, recent developments such as a potential end to tariff woes and potential government support for the sector may bring about an inflection in its fortunes.
All signs therefore suggest we could be at the cusp of a new earnings cycle. However, the strength and longevity of the cycle will depend on our ability to push structural reform. Following up on corporate tax cuts, the Union Cabinet recently approved The Industrial Relations Code Bill, 2019 which allows for greater flexibility to government on the threshold requirement for retrenchment and enables companies to hire workers on fixed-term contracts of any duration. Reforms on land and labour along with continued thrust on lowering cost of capital are essential for reviving investments. While labour is cheap in India, we need to focus on reskilling and education to ensure better labour productivity, while fostering innovation. Importantly, we need judicial and administrative reforms that ensure that sanctity of the contract is upheld, and speedy dispute resolution if needed.

A new earnings cycle should lead to broad basing of profit growth which in turn should improve the breadth of market performance. This is especially relevant as safe havens such as quality stocks and large caps trade at hefty premiums to the rest of the market today. Early signs point to a change in market undercurrent- ‘value’ stocks have significantly outperformed ‘quality’ over the past two months. Similarly, Nifty Mid cap 100 has outperformed the Nifty with the two indices delivering 7.5% and 5.1% respectively over the past two months; however, this breadth improvement is yet to percolate lower towards small caps with the Nifty Small cap 100 trailing with 4% returns over this period.

We expect RBI to cut policy rates by at least 25 bps on 5th December. More importantly, they should specifically target the term premium and credit spreads. Something like an ‘’Operations Twist’’ (buying long dated, selling short dated bonds) to bring down term premiums and easier refinancing window to target credit spreads along with ample liquidity will lead to stronger transmission and kick start credit growth. While monetary accommodation is a necessary condition, strong policy action and seamless execution by the government are critical for reviving economic growth. Policy makers’ intent gives us confidence; we hope that recent data points will pave the way for speedy, bold and creative action. This should lead to further broad-basing of equity market performance, and shrinking term and credit spreads.


Sources: Various publications

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